It has been a year since President Trump was sworn in for his second term as president, time to step back and evaluate what he has and hasn’t done over the past year. That turned out to be tougher than I thought.

Because he is so polarizing, it is hard to evaluate Trump’s policies without getting caught up in the man himself. So, in putting this together, I’ve tried to ask myself how I would feel about this or that policy if they were enacted by President John Smith.

I’ve also tried to avoid “what aboutism” as much as possible. It is one thing to note that some of the Trump policies I am critical of have been used by previous presidents. Chances are very good that I was equally critical of those policies and presidents at the time. And, regardless, two wrongs don’t make a right, and two stupids don’t make a smart.

Finally, I’ve done my best to base my analysis on policies that President Trump has implemented or tried to implement, rather than on the trolling and other babbling that the White House puts out, or the latest Truth Social statement.    

I am, of course, used to finding presidents falling short of my idiosyncratic standards. I’m not sure if that applies in this case.  I had a very low expectations for a Trump presidency – so low that for what may have been the first time in my life, I swallowed hard and supported a Democratic candidate.  Yet, somehow, President Trump has managed to be even worse than I expected.

Let’s take a look at some specifics.

Domestic Policy and the Economy: A great many of my Trump-supporting friends assure me that his election saved us from socialism. Yet, in the last year, he has attempted to fix prices, set CEO salaries, and had the government take partial ownership of strategic businesses. Most recently he has prohibited private equity companies from buying single family homes and sought to cap credit card interest rates. It’s hard to see much difference between Trump and, say, Zohran Mamdani.

In general, I have long held that president’s get too much credit (or blame) for the economy. But President Trump has been more active than most. So, what has Trump’s economic policies brought us?

Trump’s economy today can best be described as ok. Not spectacular, but ok. The much-predicted recession never materialized, and the economy has grown at roughly 2.3 percent, year over year, and faster in the fourth quarter of 2025 (although that data is possibly distorted by the government shutdown). The stock market continues to perform well, which benefits more people than commonly believed. On the other hand, unemployment is beginning to tick up. In December it reached 4.6 percent, the highest level since 2021. Inflation is roughly 2.7 percent year over year, about where it was when Trump took office, and down from the worst of the Biden years. However, progress there has been uneven. Gas prices are down, but other energy prices, notably electricity, are up. Eggs (the ubiquitous staple of the 2024 campaign), are down but most other groceries are up. 

The Trump economy is increasingly K-shaped. That is, higher income earners are doing well, while those earning less are struggling. Thus we see continued demand for luxury goods, while foreclosures and credit card delinquencies are on the rise. More than a third of families report difficulties in paying their bills.

Essentially, the president’s economic strategy is a three-legged stool based on tariffs, tax cuts, and the growth in AI. As we head into 2026, all three legs look pretty shaky.

About the best thing that can be said about the tariffs is that they have not yet been as damaging as they will likely turn out to be. It is hard to tease out exactly who pays what portion of the tariffs, but one thing is certain – it is Americans, not foreign governments. Goldman Sachs estimates that roughly 55 percent is being paid by American consumers, with most of the rest being absorbed by American businesses. However, businesses cannot continue doing so forever. Already, tariffs have raised retail prices by about 4.9 percentage points relative to the pre-tariff trend, 6.0 percentage points for imported goods and 4.3 percentage points for domestic goods. Some items, including clothing, coffee & tea, and furniture have seen much larger increases. At the same time, the tariffs have done little to achieve the goals that Trump has claimed for them. For example, tariffs were theoretically going to revive manufacturing.  The US lost 49,000 manufacturing jobs in 2025.

Trump’s tax and spending policies have been a mixed bag. The 2016 tax cuts benefited lower-income Americans and were worth preserving. That includes continuing the tax reductions for businesses and higher earners as well. At the same time, Trump has done little to reduce government spending. As a result, the federal government ran a deficit of $1.8 trillion in 2025. Moreover, Trump has taken major entitlement reform off the table, meaning we should expect even greater deficit and debt going forward.

Spending on AI development, including data centers and research, is now the single biggest driver of growth in the U.S., accounting for as much as 40 percent of GDP. In the long run, AI holds the possibility of radically transforming the world economy, mostly for the better. Yet, many observers are beginning to warn that AI may be facing a bubble similar to dotcom bubble of the late 1990s or real estate in 2008. Given the weakness of the rest of the economy, if that bubble were to burst, the consequences could be devastating.

Foreign Policy and National Defense:  A few months ago, I was ready to give Trump a fair amount of credit for his foreign and defense policies. No, he hasn’t ended 8 wars – that’s typical Trumpian braggadocio – but by lending the good offices of the United States and his personal prestige to negotiations, he did play a role in mediating several conflicts. In some cases, such as Armenia and Azerbaijan, this seems to have made a real difference. In others, such as the conflict between Rwanda and the Republic of Congo, fighting barely slowed.  The president should also get credit for putting together a Gaza deal that resulted in the return of the last Israeli hostages. Unfortunately, once the ceremonies end, the cameras are off, and the phony peace prizes are put on a shelf, the president tends to lose interest. There is seldom the follow-through needed to bring about real peace and stability. Thus, Gaza remains in chaos, fighting flares back up between Cambodia and Thailand, and other conflicts continue to simmer.

Overshadowing everything else, however, is the ongoing destruction of the post-World War II rules-based order. Trump’s “might makes right” approach, his undermining of traditional alliances, and his adoption of “spheres of influence,” will leave us isolated and the world a much more dangerous place. Throw in our ongoing betrayal of Ukraine and the president’s continued solicitousness toward Vladamir Putin, and it’s hard to see long-term positives here.

Immigration: Few issues have dominated President Trump’s agenda s much as immigration. I understand that my views on immigration are far more permissive than those of the average American. And even I have to give the president credit for restoring order to a border that was in complete chaos under the Biden administration. The Trump administration’s call for deporting those illegal immigrants who have committed violent crimes makes sense.    

But that is not what is happening. Just 5 percent of those detained by ICE have been convicted of a violent crime. In fact, nearly three-quarters have never been convicted of anything at all. Rather than “the worst of the worst,” Trump is busy deporting our neighbors, business owners, veterans, and long-time members of the community. Too often, even US citizens are being detained and sometimes held incommunicado for days.

It’s not just the who that I find problematic, it is the how. The tactics, especially those employed by ICE and CBP, have been unnecessarily aggressive, and deliberately cruel. Indeed, cruelty often seems to be the point. We have reached the stage where the authorities can stop you randomly on the street and demand to see your papers. That is not the kind of country that I want America to be.

Civil Liberties and the Rule of Law: The Hitler analogies are probably overblown, but one doesn’t have to be “literally Hitler” to be very, very bad. Trump has eroded the rule of law and threatened civil liberties in a way that emulates authoritarian strongmen like Orban or Erdogan.  Whatever one thinks about politicization of the justice system under the Biden administration, Trump has weaponized the Justice Department well beyond the abuses of previous administrations. His revenge tour has morphed into threats to prosecute virtually anyone who disagrees with him. Nor is it just the Justice Department, Trump has unleashed federal regulators on a host of perceived enemies from late night comedians to law firms to universities And, the sight of armed troops on American streets should give every American pause.

Some 20 years ago, I wrote a book on big-government conservatism. One chapter warned about the growing use of executive orders and the accretion of presidential power. Since then, both Democratic and Republican presidents, have seized more and more unilateral authority, while Congress retreats further and further into irrelevance. Trump didn’t start this trend, he has certainly taken advantage of it, issuing 225 executive orders in 2025. Many were innocuous and others simply reversed Biden executive orders, but Trump has clearly centralized power in the presidency to a degree that would make the Founding Fathers weep.

And the Rest… Time and space prevent me from weighing in on the other issues where Trump has had an impact. No one can say that the first year of Donald Trump’s second term has not been eventful. For good or ill, he has been an omnipresent force, upending long-established policies, programs, and norms of operation. People will be speaking of the Age of Trump for a long time to come.

Robert Kennedy Jr. and the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement have done some good work in highlighting the dangers of processed foods, calling attention to the importance of lifestyle, and shining a light on some of the excesses during the COVID pandemic. But he has also perpetuated misinformation about vaccines, measles, Tylenol, and more. Actions and inactions that will ultimately cost lives. The president took positive steps on permitting and deregulation but also attempted to purge science that investigated climate change. DOGE promised trillions in savings, but, in the end, delivered hardly any. Trump’s anti-DEI policies went far beyond a needed corrective to whitewash history and squeeze women and people of color out of top positions. He has tolerated antisemitism and racism in ways that normalized them on the right.

Certainly my readers can – and will – quibble with my depiction of any particular issue, but I think the evidence is overwhelming that Trump’s first year has been anything but a success.