Home » 2026
Yearly Archives: 2026
America 250
The United States is now 250 years old and we will, as John Adams predicted, enjoy “Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other.”
Yet, somehow, it seems a curiously joyless celebration.
No doubt some of the blame belongs to Donald Trump. Among the most divisive presidents ever, he has hijacked many of the festivities and, as is his narcissistic wont, made them about himself rather than the country. This predictably has made his opponents effectively pick up their ball and go home. Thus, what should be a unifying event has become one more partisan bone of contention.
In addition, the anniversary comes at a time when many Americans are struggling. There is a war going on. Inflation is rampant and kicking the stuffing out of low- and moderate income Americans. AI is causing all sorts of economic disruptions and both founded and unfounded fears. Both major political parties seem headed to crazyland. Hard times do not a celebratory spirit make.
But I think there is something more profound going on as well. How, after all, does one celebrate a nation that began by proclaiming transformational ideals, but all too often failed to live up to them? One need only read Frederick Douglas’s “What to the Slave is the 4th of July?” to understand the ambivalence that many Americans, especially those who are not wealthy, white, heterosexual, Christian, men, feel.
Add the genocide of Native Americans, the subjugation and disenfranchisement of women, the mistreatment of LGBTQ Americans, and the often callous abandonment of the poor and struggling, and there is much of our past and present that we should be ashamed of. And it only makes things worse when our political leaders try to deny or hide the evils perpetuated in our names.
But this is not the whole of the story. Not even close. For, however imperfect we have been, we have never stopped trying to be better.
Perhaps Abraham Lincoln expressed it best, when he said of the Founders and the ideal of equality they espoused:
“They did not mean to assert the obvious untruth, that all were then actually enjoying that equality, nor yet, that they were about to confer it immediately upon them … They meant simply to declare the right, so that the enforcement of it might follow as fast as circumstances should permit. They meant to set up a standard maxim for free society … constantly looked to, constantly labored for, and even though never perfectly attained, constantly approximated.”
The truth of the ideals that undergird our nation do not depend on the moral perfection of the Founders, nor those who followed, including our political leaders today. In the classic Broadway musical 1776, the character of Ben Franklin responds to criticism of the Declaration (for failing to condemn slavery), by asking “What will posterity think we were? Demi-Gods? We’re men, no more, no less.” We try. We fail. We try again.
Is this nation’s history flawed? Without a doubt. Are we still imperfect today? Of course. But uniquely among nations, America is not just an ethnicity or a geographic location. Nor is it any particular president or political party. It is not even our prosperity and the opportunities for advancement that we offer. Rather, it is a promise, an aspiration, and a challenge.
With each generation we are called upon to prove that we really believe that all men (and women) have equal moral worth regardless of race, gender, wealth, or where their family came from. And, faced with such a challenge, we have responded. Abolition, suffrage, the civil rights movement, and many more such liberation movements were all steps on that road to a more perfect and more inclusive union. We have not yet achieved – and may never achieve—that promise, but we still strive toward it. Compare America to Utopia and we will always fall short. Compare us to real countries in the real world, and there’s no one doing better.
Moreover, America is not just, or even primarily, about government. It is about the people and communities that make up this country. The civil society that binds us together and makes us who we are: neighbors helping neighbors, welcoming strangers, healing the earth, and creating an abundance not just for ourselves but for the entire world. There is a reason beyond simple economic opportunity – although that matters too – why people from around the world are willing to face all manner of hardships to come here. And once here, they become yet another addition to the American mosaic.
We don’t need to “make America great again.” We never stopped being great. That’s because even during the bad times, even when we let ourselves down, we never stopped being America.
That is why I still love my country – warts and all. And that is why I will be celebrating this and every 4th of July. Happy 250th Birthday!
Some Thoughts on the War with Iran
All these things can be true at once.
The Iranian leadership were/are bad guys. For decades they have slaughtered their own people, sponsored terrorism, threatened Isreal and its Arab neighbors, and killed Americans. The world — and Iranians themselves — would be better off without them. And it goes without saying that it would be a very bad thing, potentially catastrophic, should that regime ever acquire nuclear weapons.
War is never a good thing. It may sometimes be a necessary thing, but even under the most justified of circumstances, it carries horrible costs. This war has already seen American soldiers and Iranian civilians wounded and killed. One need look no further than the accidental bombing of an Iranian girl’s school or the flag-draped coffins of our servicemen and women to see the costs of war. That is why war should be a last resort.
There may be a case for war with Iran. But if so, President Trump has not made it. Indeed, he has not even tried to make it. Why are we at war? And, why now? President Trump and other administration officials have given us a litany of often contradictory explanations that seem to change daily. Even more narrow questions of objectives seem hard to answer. Is this war about regime change? Is it about preventing nuclear weapons (and weren’t we told we obliterated the Iranian nuclear program last year)? Is it about destroying Iran’s military strength so that it can’t threaten us or its neighbors? Was there an imminent threat? Was Iran about to attack us? Is it all these things or none?
This entire war has an ad hoc quality about it that is deeply troubling. Our military is performing brilliantly of course. I would expect nothing less. But there certainly seems to have been a lack of long-term strategic planning. There was no attempt to build support with the American public or with our allies. Indeed, we have so alienated those allies that Trump has been left begging for help from China to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In many ways, Trump seems like the proverbial dog that caught the car. What do we do now? Questions like “how many weeks will the war last?” are silly. Imagine someone asking that question at the beginning of World War II. Yet Trump’s statement that the war will end when he “feels it in [his] bones” is even more ridiculous. What are the criteria for “winning” this war and bringing the troops home? Are there any? Of course, at some point President Trump will declare victory (like nobody ever thought possible!). Unfortunately, though, Iran gets a vote, particularly in an age of asymmetrical warfare. The enemy always gets a vote.
Trump has now bombed or attacked at least eight countries. He is threatening others. And he is talking casually about “taking” Cuba next. Increasingly Trump is acting the bully and imperial power, stomping about the world, ready to remake it according to his whims. Few will shed tears over most of his targets, but it is not as though Trump seeks to replace the bad guys with peace-loving, democratic, good guys. If that was his intent, Maria Machado would be running Venezuela not Delcy Rodriguez and we would be fully behind Zelenskyy and Ukraine. Rather, his inclination seems to be replacing the bad guys with more pliant bad guys. What seems to matter is not whether a regime respects the rights of its citizens but whether or not it plays by Trump’s rules. For that matter, Trump can’t even get upset that Russia is providing intelligence and targeting information to the Iranians.
There is plenty of room for “what aboutism” when it comes to presidents ignoring Congress (not to mention the Constitution) when it comes to war powers. Even so, the military is not a shiny toy for presidents to play with. The president should seek congressional authorizations for his actions, or Congress should step up and perform its constitutional duties.
Finally, the locker room braggadocio and pseudo-tough bro talk coming from the president and Pete Hegseth is unworthy of a great nation, our military, and the sacrifices being made by the men and women who are fighting this war (not to mention their families). Bombast only makes us look weak and diminishes support for the war at home and abroad.
TRUMP YEAR ONE
It has been a year since President Trump was sworn in for his second term as president, time to step back and evaluate what he has and hasn’t done over the past year. That turned out to be tougher than I thought.
Because he is so polarizing, it is hard to evaluate Trump’s policies without getting caught up in the man himself. So, in putting this together, I’ve tried to ask myself how I would feel about this or that policy if they were enacted by President John Smith.
I’ve also tried to avoid “what aboutism” as much as possible. It is one thing to note that some of the Trump policies I am critical of have been used by previous presidents. Chances are very good that I was equally critical of those policies and presidents at the time. And, regardless, two wrongs don’t make a right, and two stupids don’t make a smart.
Finally, I’ve done my best to base my analysis on policies that President Trump has implemented or tried to implement, rather than on the trolling and other babbling that the White House puts out, or the latest Truth Social statement.
I am, of course, used to finding presidents falling short of my idiosyncratic standards. I’m not sure if that applies in this case. I had a very low expectations for a Trump presidency – so low that for what may have been the first time in my life, I swallowed hard and supported a Democratic candidate. Yet, somehow, President Trump has managed to be even worse than I expected.
Let’s take a look at some specifics.
Domestic Policy and the Economy: A great many of my Trump-supporting friends assure me that his election saved us from socialism. Yet, in the last year, he has attempted to fix prices, set CEO salaries, and had the government take partial ownership of strategic businesses. Most recently he has prohibited private equity companies from buying single family homes and sought to cap credit card interest rates. It’s hard to see much difference between Trump and, say, Zohran Mamdani.
In general, I have long held that president’s get too much credit (or blame) for the economy. But President Trump has been more active than most. So, what has Trump’s economic policies brought us?
Trump’s economy today can best be described as ok. Not spectacular, but ok. The much-predicted recession never materialized, and the economy has grown at roughly 2.3 percent, year over year, and faster in the fourth quarter of 2025 (although that data is possibly distorted by the government shutdown). The stock market continues to perform well, which benefits more people than commonly believed. On the other hand, unemployment is beginning to tick up. In December it reached 4.6 percent, the highest level since 2021. Inflation is roughly 2.7 percent year over year, about where it was when Trump took office, and down from the worst of the Biden years. However, progress there has been uneven. Gas prices are down, but other energy prices, notably electricity, are up. Eggs (the ubiquitous staple of the 2024 campaign), are down but most other groceries are up.
The Trump economy is increasingly K-shaped. That is, higher income earners are doing well, while those earning less are struggling. Thus we see continued demand for luxury goods, while foreclosures and credit card delinquencies are on the rise. More than a third of families report difficulties in paying their bills.
Essentially, the president’s economic strategy is a three-legged stool based on tariffs, tax cuts, and the growth in AI. As we head into 2026, all three legs look pretty shaky.
About the best thing that can be said about the tariffs is that they have not yet been as damaging as they will likely turn out to be. It is hard to tease out exactly who pays what portion of the tariffs, but one thing is certain – it is Americans, not foreign governments. Goldman Sachs estimates that roughly 55 percent is being paid by American consumers, with most of the rest being absorbed by American businesses. However, businesses cannot continue doing so forever. Already, tariffs have raised retail prices by about 4.9 percentage points relative to the pre-tariff trend, 6.0 percentage points for imported goods and 4.3 percentage points for domestic goods. Some items, including clothing, coffee & tea, and furniture have seen much larger increases. At the same time, the tariffs have done little to achieve the goals that Trump has claimed for them. For example, tariffs were theoretically going to revive manufacturing. The US lost 49,000 manufacturing jobs in 2025.
Trump’s tax and spending policies have been a mixed bag. The 2016 tax cuts benefited lower-income Americans and were worth preserving. That includes continuing the tax reductions for businesses and higher earners as well. At the same time, Trump has done little to reduce government spending. As a result, the federal government ran a deficit of $1.8 trillion in 2025. Moreover, Trump has taken major entitlement reform off the table, meaning we should expect even greater deficit and debt going forward.
Spending on AI development, including data centers and research, is now the single biggest driver of growth in the U.S., accounting for as much as 40 percent of GDP. In the long run, AI holds the possibility of radically transforming the world economy, mostly for the better. Yet, many observers are beginning to warn that AI may be facing a bubble similar to dotcom bubble of the late 1990s or real estate in 2008. Given the weakness of the rest of the economy, if that bubble were to burst, the consequences could be devastating.
Foreign Policy and National Defense: A few months ago, I was ready to give Trump a fair amount of credit for his foreign and defense policies. No, he hasn’t ended 8 wars – that’s typical Trumpian braggadocio – but by lending the good offices of the United States and his personal prestige to negotiations, he did play a role in mediating several conflicts. In some cases, such as Armenia and Azerbaijan, this seems to have made a real difference. In others, such as the conflict between Rwanda and the Republic of Congo, fighting barely slowed. The president should also get credit for putting together a Gaza deal that resulted in the return of the last Israeli hostages. Unfortunately, once the ceremonies end, the cameras are off, and the phony peace prizes are put on a shelf, the president tends to lose interest. There is seldom the follow-through needed to bring about real peace and stability. Thus, Gaza remains in chaos, fighting flares back up between Cambodia and Thailand, and other conflicts continue to simmer.
Overshadowing everything else, however, is the ongoing destruction of the post-World War II rules-based order. Trump’s “might makes right” approach, his undermining of traditional alliances, and his adoption of “spheres of influence,” will leave us isolated and the world a much more dangerous place. Throw in our ongoing betrayal of Ukraine and the president’s continued solicitousness toward Vladamir Putin, and it’s hard to see long-term positives here.
Immigration: Few issues have dominated President Trump’s agenda s much as immigration. I understand that my views on immigration are far more permissive than those of the average American. And even I have to give the president credit for restoring order to a border that was in complete chaos under the Biden administration. The Trump administration’s call for deporting those illegal immigrants who have committed violent crimes makes sense.
But that is not what is happening. Just 5 percent of those detained by ICE have been convicted of a violent crime. In fact, nearly three-quarters have never been convicted of anything at all. Rather than “the worst of the worst,” Trump is busy deporting our neighbors, business owners, veterans, and long-time members of the community. Too often, even US citizens are being detained and sometimes held incommunicado for days.
It’s not just the who that I find problematic, it is the how. The tactics, especially those employed by ICE and CBP, have been unnecessarily aggressive, and deliberately cruel. Indeed, cruelty often seems to be the point. We have reached the stage where the authorities can stop you randomly on the street and demand to see your papers. That is not the kind of country that I want America to be.
Civil Liberties and the Rule of Law: The Hitler analogies are probably overblown, but one doesn’t have to be “literally Hitler” to be very, very bad. Trump has eroded the rule of law and threatened civil liberties in a way that emulates authoritarian strongmen like Orban or Erdogan. Whatever one thinks about politicization of the justice system under the Biden administration, Trump has weaponized the Justice Department well beyond the abuses of previous administrations. His revenge tour has morphed into threats to prosecute virtually anyone who disagrees with him. Nor is it just the Justice Department, Trump has unleashed federal regulators on a host of perceived enemies from late night comedians to law firms to universities And, the sight of armed troops on American streets should give every American pause.
Some 20 years ago, I wrote a book on big-government conservatism. One chapter warned about the growing use of executive orders and the accretion of presidential power. Since then, both Democratic and Republican presidents, have seized more and more unilateral authority, while Congress retreats further and further into irrelevance. Trump didn’t start this trend, he has certainly taken advantage of it, issuing 225 executive orders in 2025. Many were innocuous and others simply reversed Biden executive orders, but Trump has clearly centralized power in the presidency to a degree that would make the Founding Fathers weep.
And the Rest… Time and space prevent me from weighing in on the other issues where Trump has had an impact. No one can say that the first year of Donald Trump’s second term has not been eventful. For good or ill, he has been an omnipresent force, upending long-established policies, programs, and norms of operation. People will be speaking of the Age of Trump for a long time to come.
Robert Kennedy Jr. and the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement have done some good work in highlighting the dangers of processed foods, calling attention to the importance of lifestyle, and shining a light on some of the excesses during the COVID pandemic. But he has also perpetuated misinformation about vaccines, measles, Tylenol, and more. Actions and inactions that will ultimately cost lives. The president took positive steps on permitting and deregulation but also attempted to purge science that investigated climate change. DOGE promised trillions in savings, but, in the end, delivered hardly any. Trump’s anti-DEI policies went far beyond a needed corrective to whitewash history and squeeze women and people of color out of top positions. He has tolerated antisemitism and racism in ways that normalized them on the right.
Certainly my readers can – and will – quibble with my depiction of any particular issue, but I think the evidence is overwhelming that Trump’s first year has been anything but a success.
TannerOnPolicy 