My latest novel is out

An exciting tale of love, intrigue, and dark magic, set against a backdrop of religious and ethnic strife in 13th Century Europe. The story began with Days Dark as Night and continued with Nights Lit by Fire. Now in the thrilling conclusion, Simon and Joet have survived the siege of Cardester Castle, but their hold on Adama’s throne may be more perilous than ever. Caught between a wounded but still powerful papal army and the growing ambitions of Haakon, King of Norway, they must now confront an ancient evil rising once more in their midst. Priests and kings, peasants and sorcerers, all will play their part, as the fate of nations hangs in the balance. And this time, neither Simon’s strength at arms nor Joet’s arcane powers may be enough to save them.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1519436009?psc=1&redirect=true&ref_=od_aui_detailpages00

Note: This is the paperback edition. The kindle version will be released on December 28.

Or start at the beginning:

Days Dark as Night is the story of Joet, a young peasant girl with magical abilities, who survives the massacre of her village to become the leader of her people. It is also the story of Simon, a disillusioned young knight, who must stand for what he believes is right—even if it means taking arms against his king and his own father. Caught up in a conflict that sweeps from the beginnings of the Inquisition to the founding of Amsterdam, from the bloody battlefields of Northern Europe to the papal palaces of Rome, these two young people will find themselves facing enemies far more dangerous than mere flesh and blood. Together, Simon and Joet will have to cast off a legacy of superstition and ethnic hatred, or see everything they hold dear consumed by the fires of war.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004KAAXUI?keywords=days%20dark%20as%20night&qid=1449498206&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1

Simon and Joet have fought their way to Adama’s throne, but now they face new enemies both within and without. As civil war threatens to tear the kingdom apart and a papal army prepares to invade, a new threat arises—one that may be a match even for Joet’s arcane powers. As the action sweeps from the glittering palaces of Rome to the mead halls of Norway, Simon and Joet will find their lives and love tested by war, treachery, and the fires of dark magic.
http://www.amazon.com/Nights-Lit-Fire-Ellen-Maidman-Tanner-ebook/dp/B004MME64I/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1449498245&sr=8-1&keywords=nights+lit+by+fire

Every weekday, I get in my car and drive into Washington, DC to work.  At other times, I eat in restaurants, go the theater and concerts, or visit museums in the city. I live less than a mile from the DC line. So, yes, I find it a bit disconcerting when ISIS releases a video promising a Paris-style attack on the city.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/isis-threatens-attack-dc-video/story?id=35242900

Do you know what I’m going to do about it?  Absolutely nothing.  And, that’s a good thing.  The purpose of terrorism is to terrorize.  That’s why we call it terrorism. I refuse to be terrorized. I refuse to change my life or spend my days looking over my shoulder. I refuse to stop doing what I did before.

The same should be true for our government and our society.  I don’t want to give up our civil liberties in order to purchase a little added safety.  Should we be vigilant?  Of course. Should we track down and arrest or kill the terrorists? Absolutely. But in an open, liberal democracy, there is no such thing as perfect safety.

I fully expect that, sooner or later, terrorists will strike again in the United States.  Americans will die.  That is terrible and tragic. But, last year, more than 35,000 Americans died in auto accidents. The reality is that I’m more at risk from driving my car to work than I am from terrorists. If all we cared about was preventing deaths, we would ban cars. That we don’t, shows a proper sense of perspective.

I want a similar sense of proportion when it comes to terrorism. I don’t want the government monitoring my communications, detaining people without trial, closing mosques, or otherwise violating our civil liberties in order to fight terrorism.  We can be reasonably safe – not perfectly safe, but reasonably – without making America something less than America.

http://www.amazon.com/Chasing-Ghosts-The-Policing-Terrorism/dp/0190237317

Similarly, I am disturbed by the hysteria surrounding resettlement of Syrian refugees.  Is it possible that a terrorist might slip in amidst the widows and orphans (only about 2 percent of Syrian refugees coming to the US are military-age men without families)? I suppose so, although there are certainly easier ways for a would-be terrorist to get here.  But is that very small risk worth denying America’s heritage as a refuge for people fleeing tyranny?

Nor should the fear of terrorism become an excuse for religious bigotry.  As I wrote the other day, the attack in Paris was carried out by a cult of radical islamicists.   That does not mean that all Muslims are terrorists or evil, or that Islam itself is a threat.  As one Facebook meme put it very well: There are 1.2 billion Muslims. If they were all terrorists, we would all be dead by now. In fact, consider that those Kurds we are all cheering for their pro-Americanism – and for retaking ISIS-claimed territory in Iraq and Syria – are Sunni Muslims.  And, lest you say that moderate Muslims are not condemning these attacks – yes they are:

http://www.isisnotinmyname.com/

ISIS is not going to conquer the United States. It is dangerous, indeed barbarous, but it is not an existential threat. But it can make us change our way of like.  It can make us different than the country that I love. If they do, they will have won.

Before all else, my thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of Friday’s horrendous terrorist attacks in Paris.  And, not just the French.  The day before the Paris attacks, suicide bombers in Beirut killed more than 40 people.  The same day, a bomb at a funeral in Baghdad killed 24.  And every day, terrorists murder countless numbers in Nigeria and Yemen and Syria and Bangladesh and….

Next, I speak as an educated and reasonably well-read layman.  I am not an expert on military or diplomatic strategy.  These are not policy areas that I work on.  But, like many Americans, I have thoughts and ideas that I wish to share.  Take them for what they are worth.

Let me begin, then, by disposing of some silliness – no stupidity.  The attack in Paris was carried out by a cult of radical islamicists.   That does not mean that all Muslims are terrorists or evil or that Islam itself is a threat.  As one Facebook meme put it very well: There are 1.2 billion Muslims. If they were all terrorists, we would all be dead by now.  In fact, consider that those Kurds we are all cheering for their pro-Americanism – and for retaking ISIS-claimed territory in Iraq and Syria – are Sunni Muslims.  And, lest you say that moderate Muslims are not condemning these attacks – yes they are:

http://www.isisnotinmyname.com/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/14/muslims-strongly-condemn-paris-attacks/75772102/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/11/14/how-muslims-around-the-world-condemned-the-paris-attacks/

So, if you are among the people on my Facebook feed saying that we should nuke Mecca or shut down all the mosques, you are teetering dangerously close to idiocy.

That said, the failure of the Obama administration, the Democratic candidates for president, and certain liberal media outlets to admit that the attackers were radical islamicists is absurd.  ISIS may practice a twisted medieval version of Islam, but there is no doubt that their vision of Islam is what motivates them.  You cannot wage an ideological and theological battle if you don’t know – or admit — what your opponent’s ideology and theology is.   Truth should not be a casualty of this war.

Second, the big question is what to do next.  Like almost everyone else, I agree that “ISIS must be destroyed.”  But how?  The Obama administrations approach could hardly be less effective.  The very fact that French warplanes struck a command and control center in Raqqa last night raises an obvious question.  Why, after more than a year of US bombing, was there still a command and control center in Raqqa?  The administration’s approach seems to be doing just enough to make us a target, but not enough to accomplish anything.

But what are the alternatives.  “Bomb the shit out of them,” as Donald Trump says?  Are we really prepared for massive civilian casualties from that type of bombing campaign.  What do you do with a city that has a few thousand ISIS fighters hidden amongst tens of thousands of civilians?  Are the civilians we will kill less innocent than the victims in Paris?  I know and accept there will always be collateral damage during war.  Sometimes its necessary.  But how much are we prepared for, and what will be the blowback?  Will we lose allies? Radicalize more Muslims?

Others cavalierly suggest more American troops.  How many?  And, recall that Vietnam started with just a few advisors.  How will Iraqis and Syrians react to Americans occupying their land?  And, how long must we stay there?  Decades?   We can conquer if we are willing to accept consequences, but then what?

Still other hawks, including Hillary Clinton and various Republicans, are calling for a No Fly Zone in Syria.  But as Rand Paul pointed out in the last debate, what happens if Russians fly in our no fly zone?  Are we ready to shoot down Russian planes?  And what if they retaliate by shooting down ours?  Do we risk war with Russia? Or do we back down – again – and look pathetically weak.

That leaves our current policy of arming and supporting allies like the Kurds and a motley array of Syrian rebels.  The Kurds have done well, and I think we should arm them, but there are limits to what they can do. Syrian (and even Iraqi) Arabs have no desire to be ruled by Kurds.  Sunni Muslims don’t want to be ruled by Shiites.  Shiites don’t trust Sunnis.  The Alawites, Druze, and other insular minorities have their own histories of ethnic hatreds.    So who are our allies – and for how long?  Do we decide who runs the place – or do they just fight it out?

On the other hand, I actually do think that territory matters in this war.  ISIS needs its image of invincibility.  It says it has reestablished the caliphate.  Take that away from them, and they will be a lot less attractive to the disillusioned young people now joining them.  I don’t think military options should be taken off the table.  But we should recognize that there are consequences to our actions.  There are always consequences.

I don’t have any answers.  I have no moral objection to fighting a war (properly declared) against ISIS.  I’m open to ideas about how to do this.  There are many people – including many of you reading this – who know more about it than me.  But, so far, much of what I’m hearing is cathartic but facile.

From those running for president, both Democratic and Republican, we need and deserve something more thoughtful.

In Washington, the word “bipartisan” usually means “watch your wallet.” If anyone needs any further proof, just look to the bipartisan budget agreement announced yesterday.

Hailed in the name of “coming together” and “compromise” to “get things done,” the proposed deal is a dog’s breakfast of every bad budgetary idea to land on the table in recent months.

It’s a deal so bad that even incoming House Speaker Paul Ryan says it “stinks” (although, it appears, he will still be voting for it). Still, current speaker John Boehner, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who hammered out the deal behind closed doors, can probably put together enough votes to push it through, with a united Democratic caucus and just enough pro-defense spending Republicans.

The deal essentially guts the spending limits in place under the 2011 Budget Control Act which brought about sequestration. It would increase spending by at least $80 billion over the next two years above current spending limits, split equally between domestic and defense spending. It would also increase funding for the military’s Overseas Contingency Operation slush fund by $32 billion, meaning the total spending hike would top $112 billion. More domestic spending for Democrats. More defense spending for Republicans. Everyone wins except the taxpayers.

But the deal is much worse than just the particular spending increases it contains. Sequestration may have been a blunt instrument but it has been one of the few successful restraints on federal spending in recent years. Without it and the caps in the Budget Control Act, federal spending would have been at least $200 billion higher since 2011.

This really would mark the second consecutive budget deal in which Congress agreed to ignore the caps. That’s a pretty clear signal that Congress plans to return to its wide open tax and spend past.

The deal would supposedly offset these increases through a rehashed collection of budget gimmicks such as selling some of the strategic petroleum oil reserves, auctioning telecommunications spectrum (again), and making changes to the crop insurance program. Been there. Done that. Still paying for the t-shirt.

In fact, this deal actually weakens long term entitlement reform. For example, it cancels coming increases in Medicare Part B premiums for the 30 percent of beneficiaries not already shielded from premium increases by a hold harmless provision. It would also allow Congress to avoid reforming the Social Security Disability Insurance program by shifting funds to it from Social Security’s retirement program. The move weakens Social Security’s overall financing, but props up the disability program for another six years.

So we will spend more on domestic discretionary programs, more on defense, and more on entitlements, while papering over the cost. Happy days all around.

The deal would also raise the debt ceiling by enough to last through March 2017. In fact, the deal doesn’t just raise the debt ceiling, it simply does away with it for a year and a half.

Of course, no one really expected Congress not to raise the debt ceiling eventually. But this deal surrenders even token Republican leverage.

We’ve been fortunate the last few years. A combination of renewed economic growth and sequestration-driven spending restraint has reduced our budget deficit to just (just!) $435 billion. But this is only a temporary respite. Within just a couple of years, deficits are expected to start growing once more. By 2025 we could again see $1 trillion deficits. Worse, our $18.2 trillion debt is scheduled to rise to $26.9 trillion over the same period. And all of this is before the big cost of entitlements really kicks in. By some measures, our real debt tops $80-90 trillion.

But at least we’ve found something everyone in Washington can agree on: screwing the taxpayer.

Cross-posted to Cato@Liberty

For anyone who believes in a smaller, less costly, and less intrusive government, last night’s GOP debate was truly dispiriting. For anyone who believes in a serious discussion of the important issues, it was even worse. But at least it was grand political theater.

My thoughts on how the candidates did (roughly in order of performance grade):

Carly Fiorina. Carly was the hands down winner on debate points. There is no doubt that she is smart, prepared, and thinks quickly on her feet. She sounds, well, presidential. I can imagine her in the Oval Office, and we probably could do worse. That said, she seemed anxious to inherit Lindsey Graham’s “Dr Strangelove” mantle of strident militarism. And, while her personal tragedy makes it understandable, her stand in the drug war is lamentable. On abortion, I’m pro-choice, so I clearly disagree with her, but I thought her answer on planned parenthood was formidable. Expect to see a big rise in the polls next week.

Marco Rubio: Rubio often seems to be campaigning for last non-Trump standing, low-key, acceptable to nearly all conservative factions. He debates well, even if he seldom scores any real “moments.” Most viewers will come away with a good impression. Alas, he is another uber-hawk, but he appears more sober and stable than some of the others. I think he helped himself long-term, though it might not show yet.

Chris Christie. Debates fit Christie’s style, and he performed last night. He was the only candidate to talk sense about entitlements, but spent way too much time on his law and order shtick. You get the feeling he would rather be running for sheriff. And his 9-11 talk was emotional but over the top. Probably helped himself, but that’s a pretty low bar.

Ben Carson. Carson was Carson, low key, not terribly well informed, but extraordinarily likable. I honestly can’t recall what he said about any issue, other than schooling Trump on autism and vaccines. He didn’t have a big moment like his brain surgery line in the last debate, and I doubt he helped himself much – but he didn’t hurt himself either. Besides, his strength comes from meeting him, especially with evangelicals. Unless he blows up in one of these debates, they won’t have big impact.

Rand Paul. There were glimpses last night of what a Rand Paul candidacy could have been. His answers on war in Middle East and the drug war were terrific. But he showed little spark most of the night and wandered off into vaccine La-La Land with Trump. Good Rand/Bad Rand

Ted Cruz. I thought Cruz had an off night. Normally, I find him a compelling speaker, even if I disagree with him on substance. Last night, I found him canned. He delivered mini campaign speeches rather than answered questions – and in an odd, overly dramatic voice. He probably didn’t hurt himself with his fans, and is positioning himself to pick up Trump supporters, but his rush to the right is disconcerting. Earlier in his Senate career, he flashed occasional libertarian streaks. Those are long gone now.

Jen Bush. Well, he showed more energy, and pretty much anything would have been an improvement over his last debate performance. But he still provides absolutely no rationale for his candidacy. Why, exactly, does he want to be president, other than that it is the family business. And, he did nothing to distance himself from his brother. His performance wasn’t terrible, but certainly won’t rescue his flailing campaign.

John Kasich. Kasich started strong, playing the adult in the room, but then all but disappeared. A solid conservative in Congress, he insists on running to the Left, as if the GOP is desperate for the return of Jon Huntsman. That might be good enough for second or third in New Hampshire. But, after that, what?

Donald Trump. I’m sure his fans loved his performance. But I would hope the combination of juvenile insults and lack of policy specifics will run thin eventually. And his answer on autism and vaccines wasn’t just ignorant, it was dangerous. Trump is pretty much impossible to critique – he is what he is. Sadly. His performance won’t hurt him (his fans don’t care), but it may help cement his ceiling in place.

Mike Huckabee. Huckabee gave an impassioned plea to become chief theologian in the emerging sharia regime (echoing Jindal and Santorum from the first debate), and delivered an over the top call to defend Western Civilization, but otherwise had little visibility.

Scott Walker. Walker really needed a home run to revive his fading campaign. At best, he delivered a bunt single. Aside from his “taking on the unions” schtick, which is a bit stale, does anyone remember what he said? Does anyone remember that he was there?

This was supposed to be the best GOP field in decades. So far, it’s been a tremendous disappointment.

Given some of the ill-informed opinions being expressed on my Facebook feed and elsewhere (including by several Republican presidential candidates), let me go on the record with absolute clarity: There is no excuse for Kim Davis – none, zero, not any – to refuse to do her job and issue marriage licenses to gay couples.

I say this as someone who a) supports gay marriage, but b) believes that business owners, such as bakers, photographers, and musicians, have the right to refuse to participate in gay weddings. Religious liberty, indeed liberty generally, should protect people from being compelled to take part in activities that violate their conscience. In other words, bigots have the right to be bigots. The only exception to this should be cases when such discrimination is so wide spread, and normal social sanctions so ineffective, as to make it impossible for those discriminated against to participate in normal society, such as the Jim Crow south).

Davis, however, is a public official. She is being paid by taxpayers, including gay taxpayers, specifically to perform certain duties. Those duties include issuing marriage licenses. She can choose to exercise her religious beliefs and resign, or she can perform her legally required duties. She cannot continue to pretend to be a county clerk – and be paid as such – and refuse to perform the duties of a county clerk. Moreover, she is not merely refusing to sign marriage licenses herself, which would be of dubious legality itself, she is preventing any of her junior clerks from doing so, making it effectively impossible for gays to obtain a marriage license in her county.

Public officials cannot choose which laws to carry out. How would her defenders feel about a Quaker clerk who refused to issue firearms licenses or a Muslim who would not issue liquor licenses? In fact, the Davis case provides a field day for hypocrisy. How often have we been lectured by conservatives about the sanctity of obeying the law. Illegal immigrants should be deported because “we are a nation of laws.” Young black men who have been killed by police officers, should just “obey the police.” (Liberals have their own brand of hypocrisy. The defense of the rule of law is now coming from defenders of President Obama’s executive overreach and Hillary Clinton’s blatant disregard for legal niceties.)

Davis defenders don’t truly believe in the rule of law, they see the law as a bludgeon for enforcing their moral beliefs. That’s not how it works in this country.